Category: Market Conditions

Clients and Friends,

2018 was a transitional year. On the last page of the document below [see Market Action Report- December 2018 End of Year] you will find a new and very helpful graph of sales volume from 2003 through 2018. It is very helpful because it tells the story of the last climb to the top of the market in 2007; the crash of the market to its depths in 2012, and the manic recovery through this past year. Clearly the recovery has given way to what we believe will be a normal and balanced (and fair) marketplace for some years to come. The 2018 numbers are somewhat shocking in how flat the year was, and how low the December numbers fell compared to past Decembers. However, for most professional agents with some history, this is not surprising; we felt the difference along the way this past year and the reports have now confirmed our senses and intuition.

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• Market Action Report- December 2018 End of Year

• 2018 Yamhill County Real Estate Sales by Office

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What about 2019??? In spite of much of the media’s incessant hype related to interest rates increases and a fearful housing market, the rates are still at historic lows (even to the mid-4% right now). While they were trying to scare us (and sell advertising), interest rates actually fell substantially within the past couple of weeks. We believe the fundamentals of the marketplace are good and that 2019 will be a good, stable, and satisfying marketplace for both sellers and buyers. We trust that the rollercoaster ride is over and that boring is good for everyone!

Bella Casa Real Estate Group is soon to celebrate 12 years of success and incessant growth in our core area of expertise, the greater Yamhill County area. Our growth and development also illustrates the highs and lows and settling of the market since we began our brand in 2007. During our annual brokerage celebration last week, I reviewed our development through the years using our annual sales volume numbers; I want to share these with you:

2007 $15.7m partial year sales; late July mortgage market meltdown begins
2008 $31.7m financial sector meltdown in September
2009 $31.8m prices begin to plummet
2010 $32.1m dark years!
2011 $32.6m more dark years!
2012 $44.9m recovery begins in Portland and spreads
2013 $54.9m OK
2014 $62.9m OK
2015 $109.1m Yamhill County’s first very good and ‘normal’ feeling year
2016 $114.1m good
2017 $127.9m very good
2018 $110.8m the market levels out throughout the year

For Yamhill County, 2018, we remain the 2 most productive office of hundreds of offices with agents selling in Yamhill County [see 2018 Yamhill County Real Estate Sales by Office]. We are second to a new construction and real estate development brokerage where demand is strong particularly after so many years of non-production of homes. We congratulate Willcuts Company Realtors.

We have much to be grateful for, and many to thank for the industrious work by our professional brokers, gracious clients who entrusted their sales and purchases to us, for good industry colleagues, and our industry affiliates and vendors.

We are eager to continue our growth and meet and serve more wonderful clients. We work diligently to spread our values and our methods but our most valued source of new clients comes from you! We value your referrals to your friends and family, your associates and your neighbors. Thank you for entrusting these to us. We promise to give premium service to all our clients and we do so for less than many in our industry.

Happy New Year To You and Yours.

Randy

Clients and Friends,

In 2018 we have leveled off to a ‘normal’ real estate marketplace for the Portland Metro markets. We have been to the dark lonely bottom, and then to the bright exhilarating heights of recovery. We have seen the number of licensed real estate agents plummet, and then we experienced a tsunami of new and returning agents. The current normal marketplace is a competitive experience. We next expect to see an exodus of agents who cannot live on what the market may supply; there are too many competing for a more modest number of listings and buyers. This feels cruel but it is the reality of the ebb and flow in our industry for the 100+ years of Realtors.

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• Market Action Report For October 2018

• Home Sales Reports- Yamhill County October 2018

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Anecdotally, there was much talk about how quiet the Fall marketplace is. My perspective is that I have seen this happen before several times in the past and it is not a real estate issue. I was a contractor for 15 years and now a Realtor for 17 years. A few times during these years, when there was an intense political environment, people seemed to freeze up until the elections were over. This year was the most intense mid-term election ever recorded and I think many people on each side stopped to see what the outcome would be (is the sky falling; will we all perish???). If my perspective on this is true, I think we will experience a rebound in the 4^th Quarter in sales, and then enjoy a good and ‘normal’ year in 2019.

There is also much continuing discussion about how interest rates will affect the real estate marketplace going forward. I hear many hyped fear tactics in the media. Remember, the media is all about selling something, and it is almost always hyped- positively or negatively. Interest rates are rising but this is not necessarily a bad thing. During the past 10 years of historically low interest rates, it was the seniors and the ‘savers’ in our culture who paid the price big time. Many seniors live off the interest of their savings, but in some cases that went down to around 1% (I remember a time they were getting 10 or 12%). Mortgage rates are still around 5% for a 30 year loan (but there are many factors in what rate an individual can get). We expect rates to go up, but even when it breaks through the 6% ceiling it will still be at historic lows! I recently talked to a very accomplished local mortgage Broker who told me that Freddie Mac’s published forecasts are for mortgage rates to climb by .5% in 2019 and another .5% in 2020. That is quite modest and still keeps us at an historic low rate overall. Another piece of trivia: in the 1980’s, mortgage rates hit 18% (and other credit rates were about 23%). During the peak year, more homes were sold in America that year, than were sold last year with our super low interest rates! Markets adjust to the new realities and professionals do the same.

Bella Casa Real Estate Group has continued to prosper in the current marketplace. So far this year in our core area of Yamhill County, we have sold 133 listings totaling $46 million in sales for Sellers. Additionally we have helped 119 buyers find their next home and these sales topped $39 million. $85+ million in sales makes us second only to a development/new construction company with large land sales, and new construction is a hot market, after 10 years of virtually no new construction. Our brokerage sales include starter homes to luxury homes, farms of all kinds and rural properties, multifamily and commercial properties. When adding in sales outside this county we currently have sales of $102 million. We are grateful for the trust of our clients have put in us and though the numbers are high, we are committed to giving the finest of services to each and every client. We never forget that you have made us successful by allowing us to serve you well. If we can help you or those you know, we are always grateful for your referrals.

Best regards,
Randy

Randy McCreith, Principal Broker/Owner
503-310-9147
Randy@TheBellaCasaGroup.com

Clients and Friends,

It has been a very good year in Real Estate. I have missed several months of communications because I could not even squeeze out the time to reflect on the marketplace. The 4th quarter is our quarter when we can slow down some, evaluate the past year, make new plans for the new year, solve existing problems, and the prepare for better success in the coming year. This email is my attempt to catch-up helping our clients and friends understand the current market conditions.

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• Market Action Report – August 2018

• Market Action Home Sales Report – August 2018

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2018 has been about the housing market calming down into a more normal marketplace with better balance for buyer and sellers. New listings have been up all year, and the time on the market is longer (averaging 40 days to get an accepted offer). This is not bad news in any way because it is still a market where sellers can sell at a great price, but also where buyers do not have to make panic decisions or fear losing out.

Pending sales numbers and sold properties statistics were down consistently 2+% every month compared to the previous year’s numbers. The big picture average for the last 12 months, compared with the previous 12 months, also comes in at 2+% lower. Again, this is balancing our high flying markets of previous years. Our standing inventory has been increasing in spite of strong sales removing that inventory; we currently have an average rate of 2.3 months to sell our current inventory.

For buyers, interest rates have floated up towards 5% this year but still remain under that historically low level (and moving at a snail’s pace). 4.75% is still realistic for a 30 year fixed loan. I am told there is plenty of money available to fund all the loan demands of the marketplace and more.

The construction industry continues to sell new homes as quickly as they can crank them out. We hear of massive numbers of developments and lots coming on the market everywhere. Our roads and freeways testify to the growing demand for living in Oregon (and the Portland metro area in particular).

Prices remain the big story. In spite of the fact that home values have escalated in value since 2012, our average prices over two year increments, and our median prices continue to rise at rates over 5% per year pushing 6%. There does not seem to be a slow-down to rising prices.

The economy is as good as I have ever seen it in my 38 years in Oregon. It appears that everyone who wants to be employed is working, and there are still ‘help wanted’ signs everywhere. Perhaps the best sign is that people are confidently quitting their jobs (???) because they can now move up to better jobs with greater benefits and higher income. People seem able to buy the homes they want, and when they do, the repair and remodeling industry (and home improvement stores) are working furiously to keep up with demand.

All this begs the familiar question: Are we in a bubble or near another implosion? What I am hearing is that the market is not (yet) filled with speculation, characteristic of the past; that while there is plenty of money, there are neither the crazy loan products that were used in the past nor the lack of reasonable methods. Yes, we are subject to the national economy (and that is politics) and we can overshoot the runway regarding the recovery and go too far, but for now, we seem to have good dynamics and a good prognosis for the next year.

We are glad to assist you and talk with you anytime about real estate, your questions and issues, or about referrals you might graciously send our way. Bella Casa Real Estate Group has two offices in Yamhill County; 43 Realtors, and 253 closed sales so far this year valued over $86 million. We are grateful for your patronage.

Best regards,
Randy

Randy McCreith, Principal Broker/Owner
503-310-9147
Randy@TheBellaCasaGroup.com

Clients and Friends,

We have a strong and healthy real estate market functioning on all cylinders this year. We are off to a very good start and expect a good year of plenty. Sellers have the advantage but buyers in our area have more and better choices than closer into Portland proper.

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• Market Action Report- February 2018

• Market Action Home Sales Report- February 2018

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The challenging issue, even in our area now, is that the inventory is dramatically lower than ever before. Since the end of the ‘dark years’ everyone who needed to sell, wanted to sell, and all coming into the marketplace have done so already. The number of listings is way down. Oregon and Portland in particularly, is growing very rapidly and there are not enough properties to go around for all the new buyers in our area. This leads to intense demand, multiple offers, and rapidly escalating pricing (most notably in Portland). In our area where buyers are exploring to find more and better options, we also do not have enough to sell. It will take significant expansion of new construction to meet the new demands.

We have noted that interest rates have been rising and hit 4.5% for a 30 year fixed loan. Since that report, rates have dropped some to about 4.25%. However, within the past two weeks the Federal Reserve decided to raise the short term bank interest rate by a ¼ point. While not necessarily connected to the bond rates (which include long term mortgage rates) they often portend increases to all rates. Mortgage rates are most sensitive to inflation because inflation erodes value over the long term which includes mortgages (15 or 30 years). As the economy heats up, keep your eyes on inflation; that will stimulate higher rates attempting to balance out losses to inflation. For now, it is an exceptionally good time to buy.

Bella Casa Real Estate Group and our agents are doing well. We are eager to grow our business to assist many newer agents, and to help our veteran agents expand their practices. We are grateful for any and all referrals from friends, colleagues, past clients, and neighbors. Our values never changed during the dark years and we will not be careless with them in the busy years. We are subject to real estate law, bound to a code of ethics, and proud of our exceptional personal services which have built a stellar reputation for us in our industry. While we work hard, we are grateful for your gracious trust and commendations.

Best regards,
Randy

Randy McCreith, Principal Broker/Owner
503-310-9147
Randy@TheBellaCasaGroup.com

Clients, Colleagues, and Friends,

2018 is off to a very good start!

The weather has been accommodating to real estate (unlike last year); the economy seems to be hitting on all cylinders (consumer confidence is high; unemployment is historically low), and the real estate numbers for the Portland metroplex are impressive. Pending sales (accepted offers) in the first month of the year are up 16.1% over last January and 31.5% over December. Market fundamentals seem strong. There is plenty of money for lending but we still have reasonable restraints in the lending industry. The market has leveled out some but it is still an active marketplace with good in it for both buyers and sellers. We anticipate a successful year and have no obvious reason for doubting this.

Market Action Report- January 2018

Market Action- Home Sales Report January 2018

Yamhill County Office Sales- 2017 (Final)

What about interest rates?

Yes, rates are rising and are now in the mid 4% range for a 30 year fixed loan. Pundits have been predicting rates would rise for the better part of 10 years, and with good reason. In the dark years rates drastically dropped to levels that no one ever dared dream. For many years talk of a 6% mortgage was beyond comprehension (even proof of insanity), but we came to experience rates down into the 3-4% range. The truth is that rates have been kept low artificially. Seniors, in particular, have paid the price for this. It is about time to let the markets determine rates instead of a committee of people. Truly, we have nothing to complain about regarding recent rates. In the 1970s rates went from 7% up to almost 19% in 1981!!! Leveling out in the 1980s at 10%, they dropped in the 1990s to between 6.5% and 11%. We have been in single digits since then and as low as 3.3% for a 30 year loan. I think it is finally clear and sure that mortgage interest rates will float up this year. The good about that? Since interest rates effect mortgage payments more than anything, we believe we will see a surge of buying during this year as buyers try to lock-in lower rates before they are gone ‘forever’…

What about inflation?

Everyone must know that we already have dramatic inflation. It might not show in the official numbers yet, but everyone, every company, and everything you want to do and buy, is dramatically more expensive than just a couple of years ago. Many people and businesses are making up for the dark years and for many it is about ‘whatever the markets will bear’. Right now people are feeling flush with hope and money and are willing to spend more for goods and services. The statistics will catch-up to reality but inflation usually follows an improving economy and market, especially when it has been held down so long. Let’s hope that we do not see rapid inflation that we saw in the early and mid-1980s.

Bella Casa Real Estate has done very well in the improving marketplace and remains a top leader in sales of all kinds of properties, and for buyers and sellers. We continue to practice business principles of integrity that catapulted us to top office in our area during the dark years. We remain committed to extreme service, which exceeds the expectations of our industry. The client’s interest is always first. While we enjoy success, we are deeply grateful for your referrals to friends and family, co-workers and neighbors, and other people you talk with. (See the attachment of the final sales numbers for Yamhill County in 2017)

It is the LISTNG SEASON

The earlier in the year you get your property on the market, the better-off the seller will be. There is less competition, more enthusiasm, and increased demand for the best products before others score the best property. Remember, by August and September, our markets will get very slow; that is the normal cycle…

Best regards,
Randy

Randy McCreith, Principal Broker
Direct: 503-310-9147
Randy@TheBellaCasaGroup.com

McMinnville Office
207 NE 19th Street, Suite 100
McMinnville, oR 97128

Newberg Office
1002 N Springbrook Road, Suite C
Newberg, OR 97132

 

Clients and Friends, 

The final farewell to 2017 is in (see the Market Action Reports below). Not surprising, the numbers prove what boots-on-the-ground concluded throughout the year. The real estate market softened significantly last year; I call it a leveling out from the rocket trajectory we launched in Portland in 2012. For a reality check on last year note the charts on closed sales compared with the previous 5 years, and the inventory graph for the past 3 years. That being said, note that (1) the price escalation has not softened or shown any sign of halting its climb. (2) The current volume of real estate sales is also expanding dramatically higher than the previous high water mark in 2005-2007. (3) New listings in December also bucked the year’s trend by posting higher numbers than seen since December 2011 when that helped launch the recovery in 2012. All that is good news to both sellers (pricing) and buyers (increased supply).

Market Action Reports- End of Year December 2017

Market Action- Home Sales Report December 2017

We have every reason to expect great things in 2018.

Already we have seen a good 4^th quarter (partially thanks to very nice weather), and January has launched with our equivalent of a ‘Bull Market’. The fundamentals of the marketplace are sound (for now) and I continue to hold my conviction that Portland is in the process of joining the elite club of expensive West Coast port cities. Current population forecasts and statistics continue to tell us that the world is coming to Oregon and Portland is the bull’s eye. While we always seem to ruin a good thing with carelessness (and I do not expect we will do better with this market ascension), yet for now it seems to me that we have some strong years of expansion ahead of us and new heights to reach. Sometimes I wonder how young people can afford to get into this housing market. McMinnville’s housing market has precious few opportunities under $300k and Newberg’s market starts at $350k. However, for those who have entered the marketplace, I expect it to be a good ride up.

Bella Casa Real Estate Group continued to expand this past year.

We currently have 41 licensed brokers, 17 of whom are Principal Brokers. Our net sales for 2017 were $129 million and 400 sales. In Yamhill County alone, we posted sales of $113 million with 351 Mhappy clients. Of the 1147 agents who sold real estate in our county last year, we have 3 brokers in the top 20 positions. Of the sales we accomplished, we sold 219 houses/properties for $73 million, and helped 176 buyers invest $56 million in our area by finding the right home for them. Attached, you can meet some of our rising stars at Bella Casa.

At the end of 2017, Beth Frischmuth retired after 17 years a top producing Principal Broker. This was after retiring from a career as a school teacher before that. In her Swan Song, Beth posted 10.4 million in sales in 2017, selling 16 properties and helping 21 buyers find their dreams. That is an amazing accomplishment! Beth will continue to work with her clients by referring them and making sure they are well taken care of. We will also benefit from her training and assistance to newer agents. Beth will remain a celebrity at Bella Casa for a long time to come.

The year has begun and it is the season to list properties for sale.

Buyers are already out there en masse. We are always grateful for our clients and friends who refer business to us. Our best clients come to us from you, and our reputation is stellar for caring for your friends, family, colleagues, and neighbors. As we enter our 12^th year of growth and accomplishment, we are optimistic this will be another year to celebrate. Thank you!

Best regards,

Randy McCreith, Principal Broker

Friends and Clients,

2017 is slipping into the history books and a New Year is upon us. Attached are the reports for November; the December close-out will be coming in about 2 weeks or so. Most would agree with me that the cold weather, and yet plentiful sun this year is much better all the way around over last year’s dark, wet, cold, and endless winter.

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• Market Action Report-Nov 2017

• Market Action- Home Sales Report Nov 2017

• How Important Are Market Conditions

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2017 was a good year for real estate; prices continued to rise consistently so the sellers who were brutalized during the 2007-2013 years have much to be grateful for. The leveling out of our competitive marketplace is a bonus for buyers to be able to buy with some negotiation, but they still must deal with high prices (but still extremely low interest rates). Our ‘year-to-date’ statistics have consistently been lower for this year than previous years, but modestly. The more balanced and sane marketplace is welcomed.

Anecdotally, in our area we are having a very good 4^th quarter, much different than last year. We expect 2018 to be a very good year as more and more people push-out our way to escaped the condensed packing of people into Portland and the congested streets. Our Newberg-Dundee by-pass has had her ribbon-cutting, now we need to get it opened for traffic to improve our flow of cars and trucks. We also hope to see a return of the desire to move ‘out to the country’ to enjoy space and beauty instead of the 10 year trend for ‘urban living’. While few want our area to pack tight, we do want there to be enough people to buy our rural lands and farms. I also attached an article I give to our sellers about these very issues.

During January, we will be digesting the annual numbers; it is also the beginning of the listing season for sellers. Many people think that March or April would be the time to list, but the reality is that we get a surge of searchers on our websites and sellers starting the process of listing for sale in January. Why? Because weather-permitting, buyers begin to come out in droves beginning January 2. During the holidays they have had time to think and talk about next year’s plans and they begin their search in earnest as soon as the New Year hits. Remember, those who close homes in March or April, were looking and making offers in January and February!

From all of the great Real Estate Brokers at Bella Casa Real Estate Group, we wish you a very healthy and prosperous New Year.

Best regards,

Randy

Randy McCreith, Principal Broker
Direct: 503-310-9147
Randy@TheBellaCasaGroup.com

Clients and Friends,

The 3^rd Quarter Affordability Index (last page of the Market Action report) shows that properties in the greater Portland metropolitan area are the least affordable they have been in the past 10 years. This is not surprising. Ten years ago, at this time in 2008 we were crashing for the second time. The sub-prime mortgage mess hit us in August of 2007, and the financial meltdown hit us in September of 2008. Since the bottom in 2012, prices have been escalating rapidly, and continue to climb, but at a much more modest rate now. While we see many “new price” messages in the marketplace, this is just reining-in of the euphoric optimism in pushing prices aggressively.

Consistent with every monthly report of 2017, our numbers are retreating in every category but price. The high water mark of this recovery, except for sold price, was in 2015. We are certainly not in a free-fall, the numbers for the past 3 years are still tight but the leveling out and falling back some is consistent for 2-3 years.

For buyers, everything is expensive!

What does this mean for sellers? The higher we go means the fewer the buyers in your price range. It also may mean that buyers are less motivated to get out there and ‘buy now’ because there is no such thing as a bargain anymore. The slowing of the market also adds fuel to the buyers resistance to buy quickly; it is unlikely (for now anyway) that they will be left behind as the market zooms up. Therefore, buyers have all the motivation to remain idle, to take their time, to negotiate a bit more aggressively, and find and negotiate the best value they can find. Nothing is more frustrating to sellers in the marketplace than lack of buyers ready to buy in their price range! A seller would always rather have showings and offers, even if lower, than to have no activity. Listing agents fear ‘no activity’ more than anything; how do we explain that satisfactorily???

Anecdotally, we are enjoying a ‘normal’ 4^th quarter which is good. The rains are here but we have enjoyed a rather sunny October and many good sun breaks between the rains. No extreme weather so far means our real estate activity is good this year.

In the links below you will find the Market Action Report with graphs, charts, and data. The monthly home sales numbers are also broken down by price range and bedrooms in the Home Sales Report. I also included an article about what we cannot do for you!

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• Market Action Report – October 2017

• Market Action – Home Sales Report Oct 2017

• CMA – 3 What I Can’t Do For You

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We are as busy as ever at this time of the year as we improve our services, upgrade our methods, learn from the past and prepare for greater success for our clients next year. We enter the holiday period this week and we wish you all.. great enjoyment of the season’s riches, time with your family and friends, and the understanding of these simple yet profound holidays.

Best regards,

Randy

Randy McCreith, Principal Broker
Direct: 503-310-9147
Randy@TheBellaCasaGroup.com